roulette

does the wheel have a memory?

The gambler's fallacy is the belief that past random outcomes affect future ones. After five reds in a row, many players bet black — convinced it's "due." But the wheel has no memory.

P(red | any streak) = 18/37 ≈ 48.6%

Each spin is independent. No pattern of past results changes the odds of the next spin. Spin the wheel below, then run the simulation to watch the fallacy shatter against the data.

references

Ethier. "The Doctrine of Chances." Springer, 2010.

Kaivanto. "The effect of decayed expectations on hot hand beliefs." Cognition, 2023.

interactive

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black —

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the fallacy test

After a streak of K reds, what's the probability the next spin is red? Run the simulation — every bar lands near 48.6%, regardless of streak length.

simulated spins 0

spins